Another interesting work within the framework of the export topic (and included in the series of articles presented by the authors), is an article related to forecasting the change in the value of the country’s export taking into account variations in the value of the most important commodity group for Russia — hydrocarbon energy carriers. This article offers the author’s assessment of the Russian export dynamics in the medium term. It is commonly known that the export of hydrocarbon energy carriers constitutes the basis of the Russian Federation’s export. However, the volume of energy export in value terms depends significantly on world oil prices and a number of other factors. The authors of this article making forecast estimates of the dynamics of Russian export propose to take into account the variability of the situation on the world markets of hydrocarbon energy carriers and the influence of other factors.
Various political and economic events, both in the global economy in general and directly in the exporting countries under study, may cause changes in the volume and structure of export (export dynamics). With a certain degree of probability, these events and some changes occurring in the world economy can be combined into certain groups. The very process of their impact on export development can be defined as a framework of factors that affect specific dynamic indicators of export.
One of the research objectives described in this article is to assess the influence of various groups of factors on the development of Russian export with the allocation of hydrocarbon export to a separate research group. Among the studied groups of factors, we should distinguish the following ones:
• a combination of factors that determine the impact of the modern world economic system on the development and export dynamics (a group of external factors);
• a set of factors determined by economic and political events that take place in the exporting country itself and aff ect the dynamics of its export (a group of internal factors);