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UDK: 339.13 DOI:10.33920/vne-04-2501-01

Analysis of Trends in the Global Energy Market from the Standpoint of Ensuring Economic Security of the Russian Federation

Aleksei Vasilyevich Tebekin Doctor of Engineering, Doctor of Economics, Professor of the Higher School of Cultural Policy and Management in the Humanities of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Professor of the Department of Financial, Economic and Business Education of the State University of Education, Head of the Scientific Laboratory of Sustainable Development Problems of the Institute for Advanced Training of Managerial Personnel and Specialists, Russia, 143007, Moscow region, Odintsovo, Novo-Sportivnaya st., 3, E-mail: Tebekin@gmail.com, ORCID: 0000-0002-3098-7710

The energy sector has traditionally been one of the key components of the economic security of the Russian Federation. The importance of the energy sector for the country’s economic security is evidenced by the tasks for its provision, defined in the Strategy for Economic Security of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030. At the same time, the growth of variability of the parameters of the external environment, determined by the continuing complexity of the geopolitical situation in the world, requires continuous updating of the main trends in the development of the world energy market based on an analysis of the factors determining them in the interests of developing a timely and adequate response to the ongoing changes in the strategy for the development of domestic energy, which predetermined the choice of the research topic, which has undoubted relevance. The purpose of the presented studies is to analyze the factors determining the main trends in the development of the world energy market in the interests of ensuring the economic security of the Russian Federation and the effective development of the domestic energy sector by developing rational strategic decisions based on current and forecast assessments. The scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in identifying a set of factors that determine the main trends in the development of the global energy market, demonstrating that the restraining factors in the development of innovative (alternative) energy sources are the overestimation of their capabilities (in terms of quality and price), as well as the overestimation of the prospects for implementing the green energy policy in combination with measures to stimulate its development, on the one hand, and the underestimation of the impact on the availability of traditional energy sources as a result of global warming, on the other hand. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in expanding the possibilities of analyzing the influence of various factors on the main trends in the development of the global energy market on the problems of ensuring the economic security of the Russian Federation, allowing, taking into account the presented forecast estimates, to develop rational management decisions within the framework of adjustments to the technologies for implementing the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation.

Дата поступления рукописи в редакцию: 30.10.2024

Дата принятия рукописи в печать: 14.12.2024

Энергетическая сфера традиционно является одной из ключевых составляющих экономической безопасности Российской Федерации (рис. 1, блоки 6 и 15)1.

Значимость энергетической сферы для экономической безопасности страны отражена в задачах по ее обеспечению (рис. 2)2.

При этом рост вариативности параметров внешней среды, определяемый сохраняющейся сложностью геополитической обстановки в мире [18], требует непрерывной актуализации основных трендов развития мирового рынка энергоресурсов в интересах выработки своевременной и адекватной реакции на происходящие изменения в стратегии развития отечественной энергетики3.

Целью представленных исследований является анализ основных трендов развития мирового рынка энергоресурсов в интересах обеспечения экономической безопасности Российской Федерации и эффективного развития отечественной энергетической сферы путем выработки на основе текущих и прогнозных оценок рациональных стратегических решений.

Методическую базу исследований составили известные научные работы, посвященные изучению тенденций развития мирового энергетического рынка таких авторов, как Андрианов В. В. [1], Жуков С. В. [8], Калимуллин Л. В. [4], Косов М. Е. [6], Кочегарова Л. Г., Васильев Е. Ж. [7], Макаров А. А., Григорьев Л. М., Митрова Т. А. [31], Попов М. М. [11], Рапье П.6, Симонов К.7, Федун Л., Сонин А.8, Чен П., Грюневальд Т., Ноффсингер Дж., Самсет Э.9 и др.

Методическую базу исследований также составили авторские труды, посвященные исследованию процессов развития мирового рынка энергоресурсов [15–17, 19, 24] и др.

For citation:
Aleksei Vasilyevich Tebekin, Analysis of Trends in the Global Energy Market from the Standpoint of Ensuring Economic Security of the Russian Federation. The World Economics. 2025;1.
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